After yesterday's megatrade, I started to wonder if the Tigers were the best offensive team in baseball. The Tigers were very good last season -- only second to the Yankees --and now they added one of the best hitters in the majors. So do the Yankees still hold the top spot?
I decided to compare the most likely lineup of the two teams using EQR, which is EQA represented in actual runs (see here). This lineup will not be entirely realistic for two reasons:
1) I'm going to use last seasons numbers, so I'm not taking into account regressions to the mean positively or negatively. We can safely assume Jorge Posada will decline somewhat as will Magglio Ordonez, and Jeter will probably play better next year. My system isn't going to take that into account.
2) I'm assuming everyone in the lineup will play 162 games. Obviously no one will do that, and some players are far less likely to play an entire season than others (Giambi won't even break 100).
Here's what I did. I took the player's EQR from last season, divided it by the number of games played and multiplied by 162. I then added up all the runs for the total runs produced by the lineup. Ready?
Here are the two respective lineups.
First the Tigers.
(Scroll down to see the tables because Blogger is making me crazy)
Detroit Tigers:
Player | EQR Per Game | EQR Over 162 Games |
Curtis Granderson | 0.772151899 | 125.0886076 |
Placido Polanco | 0.704225352 | 114.084507 |
Maggilio Ordonez | 0.898089172 | 145.4904459 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.796178344 | 128.9808917 |
Gary Sheffield | 0.714285714 | 115.7142857 |
Carlos Guillen | 0.655629139 | 106.2119205 |
Edgar Renteria | 0.701612903 | 113.6612903 |
Jacque Jones | 0.407407407 | 66 |
Ivan Rodriguez | 0.449612403 | 72.8372093 |
6.099192334 | 988.0691581 |
Now here are the Yankees.
New York Yankees:
Player | EQR Per Game | EQR Over 162 Games |
Johnny Damon | 0.574468085 | 93.06382979 |
Derek Jeter | 0.705128205 | 114.2307692 |
Bobby Abreu | 0.664556962 | 107.6582278 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.974683544 | 157.8987342 |
Hideki Matsui | 0.699300699 | 113.2867133 |
Jorge Posada | 0.777777778 | 126 |
Robinson Cano | 0.63125 | 102.2625 |
Jason Giambi | 0.506024096 | 81.97590361 |
Melky Cabrera | 0.5 | 81 |
6.03318937 | 977.3766779 |
As you can see, the Tigers project to finish 11 runs better than the Yankees.
Update: It seemed unfair to only use last year's stats, so I decided to take an average of the last three seasons stats and use those numbers as a projection. Not perfect, but better. I'm not going to make another table, so I'll just list the total numbers.
Tigers:
Per Game: 5.762857783
Over 162: 933.5829608
Yanks:
Per Game: 6.140102444
Over 162: 994.696596
And for fun here are the Red Sox. I used Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Manny, Youkilis, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, and Lugo:
Per Game: 5.830537782
Over 162: 944.5471207
I also wanted to run the Indians numbers but unlike the other three teams, it was hard to figure out who are the primary 9 players. Hafner, Sizemore, Blake, Peralta, Martinez and Garko are clearly everyday players. But who are the other three? I came up with a few different lineups. One used Barfield, Lofton, and Gutierrez. That lineup scored:
Per Game: 5.312430512
Over 162: 860.613743
The other substituted Asdrubal Cabrera for Josh Barfield and Trot Nixon for Franklin Gutierrez:
Per game: 5.529906373
Over 162: 895.8448324
The second lineup was the best offensive configuration I could come up with.
So it looks like the Yankees should have the best offense in baseball this season. I believe 3 years is a legitimate amount of time to use as a reference, and the Yanks come out way ahead. While other teams certainly have better pitching, the Yankees offense should carry them to the playoffs.
No comments:
Post a Comment